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Sunday, February 5, 2023

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Match Preview – Bangladesh vs India, India in Bangladesh 2022/23, 3rd ODI

What more can you ask for from a three game series, eh? A one wicket win in the first match, a last ball result with only one wicket left in the second, and every possible twist and turn en route to those two finishes. It’s a shame the same team won both games and the series finale will be a dead rubber, but doesn’t rule out more excitement.

For Bangladesh, this series is further proof of how good an ODI side are at home, and how good they have been for a number of years. Since the start of 2015, they have a win-loss ratio of 3.30 against Full Members at home, surpassed only by Pakistan, who obviously haven’t played that much at home in this period, and New Zealand.
You could say that Zimbabwe, West Indies, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka have been Bangladesh’s most common opponents during this period, but you can only beat who is in front of you. That Bangladesh have beaten India four times in five games in the same period – they have also had series victories over Pakistan and South Africa – suggests they could do just as well against other high-profile teams who have not visited as often in recent years.

If they win again on Saturday, Bangladesh will emphatically reinforce this idea.

This series was of course so close that India itself could have been 2-0. But they want that closeness to show up somewhere in the scoreline. For that to happen, they may have to play their best game of the series at Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury Stadium, where they will be without their regular captain Rohit Sharma alongside countless other injured absentees.

It will be a test of their resourcefulness – they came into this series without first-choice reserves like Shubman Gill, Suryakumar Yadav and Sanju Samson – and this test will come against a hungry home side who are high on morale. The result does not affect where the series trophy goes, but it can have other potentially far-reaching consequences.

bangladesh WWWLW (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)

Virat Kohli has a top score of 18 in his last seven ODI innings. It’s hard to call it a run of form as he’s played these seven ODIs in the space of ten months, and has looked in excellent rhythm in other formats during this time. Still, in the absence of Rohit Sharma, India will hope their leading batsman can get back in between the runs as they push for a consolation victory.
Mustafizur Rahman has only taken one wicket in this series, but India struggles to get him away. He conceded 14 runs in the last over of the second ODI, but despite this he has only managed 3.64 in his 17 overs so far. Can India break its stranglehold in potentially flatter conditions in Chattogram?

Bangladesh is unlikely to make a major change unless there are concerns about injury.

bangladesh (probably): 1 Litton Das (capt), 2 Anamul Haque, 3 Najmul Hossain Shanto, 4 Shakib Al Hasan, 5 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 6 Mahmudullah, 7 Afif Hossain, 8 Mehidy Hasan Miraz, 9 Nasum Ahmed, 10 Mustafizur Rahman, Ebadot Hossain 11

India is in a real injury crisis; their team page for this series now has a whopping seven retired players. Instead of the absent Rohit, India will have to choose between Ishan Kishan and the unlimited pair of Rahul Tripathi and Rajat Patidar. There are only three fast bowlers left in the squad, so expect India to play a spin-heavy attack, with Kuldeep Yadav – who was added to the squad on the eve of the match – or Shahbaz Ahmed joining Washington Sundar and Axar Patel adds.

India (likely): 1 Shikhar Dhawan, 2 Ishan Kishan, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Shreyas Iyer, 5 KL Rahul (capt & wk), 6 Washington Sundar, 7 Axar Patel, 8 Shardul Thakur, 9 Shahbaz Ahmed/Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Mohammed Siraj, Umran Malik 11

Where Mirpur always has something up its sleeve for the bowlers, Chattogram tends to be a batting friendly venue in ODIs. Over the past five years, ODIs here have produced the best batting average of the three ODI venues in Bangladesh – 37.49, a significant jump from Mirpur’s 25.91. Therefore, expect a flat pitch. The weather on Saturday is expected to be clear and sunny, with a maximum temperature of 28 degrees Celsius.

“We have a much better chance if he doesn’t play. He’s such a high-calibre player. I was a little surprised he didn’t get to bat sooner.” [in the second game]. He may have been a ball short.”
Bangladesh field coach Shane McDermott about his team’s prospects during Rohit’s absence

“To be honest, Bangladesh is a high quality side, especially at home. That says their record, because I think they’ve only lost one series.” [in recent years], against England. They have been very successful at home. We knew what to expect from them before coming here. Definitely, especially in the subcontinent, Bangladesh is a very, very good side. Even in the T20 World Cup they had a good run this year. They have done very well in recent years and I am sure that even they are looking forward to a good tournament for the World Cup.”
Indian all rounder Washington Sundar about Bangladesh’s chances for next year’s ODI World Cup in India

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